Rose Simone, Record staff

WATERLOO REGION — It has been a year of doom and gloom, with Europe in a recession, the United States facing a “fiscal cliff” and tighter mortgage rules putting a damper on housing market in cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

But Waterloo Region’s housing market is doing relatively well, a housing market outlook conference was told Thursday.

The market is somewhat softer than it was at the beginning of the year, but should pick up a bit later next year, analysts from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. told real estate agents and home builders at the event at Bingemans.

“I think we have seen, especially in the resale market, the slowest part,” said Erica McLerie, an analyst with the corporation. “The new mortgage rules were introduced in July, so that has already impacted the markets, and as we move through 2013, especially with employment growth, that will support housing demand.”

The corporation expects that 6,450 resale homes will change hands in 2013 while 2,900 new homes will be built. Those numbers are a bit lower compared to this year, but the good news is that prices in Waterloo Region should remain steady, instead of declining, as is happening in other markets, McLerie said.

Ed Heese, another analyst with the corporation, said the U.S. economy is turning the corner with growing consumer confidence and rising house prices. Vehicle sales in the U.S. are rising, which will help out manufacturing and the employment picture in Waterloo Region, he said.

As a result, he expects “slow but steady” improvement in the local housing market next year.

The corporation also presented research about the home features that have the biggest impact on home prices. A finished basement has very little impact on price, said McLerie. But homes with green features, central air and those located close to post-secondary institutions are the ones that generate higher prices.

The corporation stressed, however, that construction of single detached homes is slowing down, while demand for apartments and condominiums is rising.

There were fewer couples with children in the 2011 census compared to the 2006 census, and that’s the group that is most likely to buy single-detached homes, McLerie said.

An increase in the number of immigrants in the region and a growing boomer population that has more middle-aged people living alone means there will be greater demand for apartments, she said.

Most of the apartments are being built in downtown areas, in keeping with Waterloo Region’s strategy of trying to intensify core areas, McLerie said.

A concern for the long-term future of the housing market is the 14 per cent unemployment rate for young people. That is slowing down the formation of new households, she said.

“According to the Statistics Canada census, about 42 per cent of people ages 20 to 29 are still living in their parental homes and unless they get good jobs they won’t be able to move into housing of their own, whether in the rental market or the home buying market.”

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Putting your home up for sale can be a tough decision, but once made and the ball is rolling, you may not be able to change your mind. Last week’s column about a $3.3 million home sale that went wrong for the seller prompted several related questions from readers.

Stan Vyriotes and his business partner David Wedemire have been scouring downtown Toronto streets for the last two years, looking for the perfect pension plan — a storefront topped by a couple of apartments that they hope will keep them going in retirement.

The small businessmen — they are both realtors — are far from alone, according to a new ReMax report.

While residential sales may be sagging across the GTA, commercial real estate is in high demand as even amateur investors look for income-generating real estate to compensate for decimated pensions or slumping stock market holdings.

“People see commercial real estate as a tangible item that you can feel, you can touch, that you have some control over, unlike the stock market,” says Vyriotes who has been looking for storefronts within easy transit distance of Toronto’s burgeoning downtown core.

“We see a big shift happening with the Manhattanization of Toronto,” adds Wedemire. “The core is getting bigger, it’s getting busier, it’s becoming a 24-hour city. We want to be part of that.”

Related: Buying a vacation home: 10 things to know

Right across Canada the commercial real estate sector is booming back from the 2008 recession. Major office towers are under construction in many downtown centres and American retailers are jostling for space from coast to coast, creating “a flurry of activity that is changing the Canadian real estate landscape,” says the ReMax Commercial Investor Report released Wednesday.

While many investors such as pension plans and real estate income trusts have dominated the commercial sector for some time, “smaller investors are making the foray into the commercial world,” the report notes.

“The presence of doctors, dentists, small business owners, and teachers, for example, is an emerging trend and a sign of the times, given cutbacks to many pensions and the often slow-growth of self-directed models,” says Gurinder Sandhu, executive vice president and Ontario-Atlantic regional director for ReMax.

“The desire to build a nest egg has some considering mainstream alternatives like commercial real estate.”

The push to purchase small storefronts, duplexes and smaller apartment complexes, generally no bigger than six units, has been going on for some time, but has become especially pronounced because of low interest rates and returns on investments for rental properties now averaging three to six per cent, says Derek Lobo, CEO of apartment brokerage Rock Advisors Inc.

“Apartments really are the domain of mom and pop,” says Lobo, “it’s just that there’s more competition for them now. People are saying, ‘I’m getting a quarter per cent interest in the bank. I hate the stock markets, but I understand real estate.’

“In 25 years the building will be paid off and then you still have the monthly income.”

But finding the perfect property is getting tough, especially in Toronto where the condo boom has added tens of thousands of new residents to the downtown core and, with them, demand for restaurants and “concept stores”: smaller, multi-level urban models of the old sprawling big-box stores.

That growing demand from investors for prime storefronts topped by apartments has created what Wedemire likes to call “the Jed Clampett seller”: owners of over-priced, aging storefronts “who think they are sitting on oil.”

Which is why his search for the perfect pension plan continues.

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says there was a slight improvement in the resale housing market last month, although it’s still slower than a year ago — mainly due to a slowdown in Vancouver.

The association said Monday sales in September were up 2.5 per cent from August — the first month-to-month gain since March.

Compared with September 2011, however, the number of deals across the country last month was down 15.1 per cent.

The association said there was still a balance between the number of homes for sale and the number of buyers in September but conditions have eased.

CREA attributed the slowdown to new rules brought in by Ottawa that make it harder for first-time buyers to qualify for mortgages.

However, other observers have noted that reduced affordability after years of rapid price increases — particularly in some markets such as Vancouver and Toronto — and an uncertain world economy have also dissuaded buyers.

“National activity is likely to remain down from year-ago levels over the fourth quarter of 2012,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“While some first time home buyers may no longer qualify for mortgage financing under the new rules, it is likely that many others are stepping back and reassessing how much house they can realistically afford, which is one of the things new mortgage rules were designed to do.”

The national average home price was up 1.1 per cent in September from a year earlier.

But the MLS HPI home price index, which also takes into account other factors, showed its smallest gain since May 2011, rising by 3.9 per cent in September.

The association said Vancouver, the country’s most expensive residential real-estate market, skewed the national results.

Excluding that city, the national average price was up 3.4 per cent from a year ago.

The MLS HPI in Vancouver posted a 0.8 per cent decline year-over-year in September. In contrast, Calgary had a 6.5 per cent increase in the index, the Toronto area was up 5.7 per cent, the Montreal area was up 2.2 per cent and the Fraser Valley in southern British Columbia was up 2.1 per cent.

Regina had the biggest increase among markets measured by the HPI, with a gain of 14.2 per cent from September 2011.

The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 49 per cent in September 2012, remaining near the midpoint of a balanced market.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, a little less than two thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in September

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