The Canadian Real Estate Association is forecasting that house sales will decline two per cent in 2013

The Canadian Press   Mon Dec 17 2012 11:49:00

OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association cut its sales forecast for this year and next on Monday as it said slower sales in the wake of tighter lending rules this summer have remained.

The industry association said now expects home sales this year to slip 0.5 per cent compared with 2011 to about 456,300.

That compared with a forecast in September that called for sales this year to rise 1.9 per cent to 466,900 units.

The association also said it now expects sales next year to drop two per cent to 447,400 compared with earlier expectations for a drop of 1.9 per cent to 457,800 in 2013.

“Annual sales in 2012 reflect a stronger profile prior to recent mortgage rule changes followed by weaker activity following their implementation,” said Gregory Klump, the association’s chief economist.

“By contrast, forecast sales in 2013 reflect an improvement from levels this summer in the immediate wake of mortgage rule changes. Even so, sales in most provinces next year are expected to remain down from levels posted prior to the most recent changes to mortgage regulations.”

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty moved in July to tighten mortgage rules for the fourth time in as many years in order to discourage those most at risk of becoming over-leveraged. Flaherty made mortgage payments more expensive by dropping the maximum amortization period to 25 years.

The association said the average price for 2012 is expected to be $363,900, up 0.3 per cent compared with a September forecast of $365,000, up 0.6 per cent.

For 2013, the association said it expects prices to gain 0.3 per cent to average $365,100. That compared with earlier expectations of a drop of one tenth of one per cent to $364,500 in 2013.

The downgrade for the outlook for the year came as home sales edged down 1.7 per cent month over month in November and were back where they stood in August.

The decrease followed a drop of about one-tenth of a per cent in September.

Actual, or non-seasonally adjusted sales, were down 11.9 per cent from November 2011 while the national average home price in November was $356,687, off 0.8 per cent from November 2011.

Sales were down on a year-over-year basis in three of every four of all local markets in November, including most large urban centres. Calgary stood out as an exception, with sales up 10.6 per cent from a year ago.

Kitchener and Waterloo also recorded a sales increase in November, with sales rising 7.3 per cent. Sales in Cambridge fell 14 per cent.

Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver contributed most to the small decline at the national level.

A total of 432,861 homes have traded hands over the MLS system so far this year, down 0.2 per cent from levels reported over the first 11 months of 2011 and 0.8 per cent below the 10-year average for the period.

The MLS Home Price Index, which is not affected changes in the mix of sales, showed prices up 3.5 per cent nationally on a year-over-year basis in November.

However, it was the seventh consecutive month in which the year-over-year gain shrank and marked the slowest rate of increase since May 2011.

The MLS HPI rose fastest in Regina, up 11.6 per cent year over year in November, though down from 13 per cent in November.

Among other markets, the HPI was up 4.6 per cent year over year in Toronto, 1.9 per cent in Montreal and 7.1 per cent in Calgary. In Greater Vancouver, the HPI was down 1.7 per cent year over year.

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First-time buyer activity drops as market adjusts to new mortgage regulations

TORONTO, October 3, 2012 – The Royal LePage House Price Survey released today showed the average price of a home in Canada increased year-over-year between 1.8 and 4.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2012.

Survey findings indicated that the average standard two-storey home in Canada increased 4 per cent year-over-year rising to $403,747, while detached bungalows rose 4.8 per cent to $366,773. Standard condominiums witnessed an increase of 1.8 per cent to $243,607. Most cities in Canada experienced modest price appreciation in the quarter, but fewer homes were sold compared to the same period in 2011.

“A drop in the number of homes trading hands typically precedes a period of softening house prices. Where there is reduced demand, those who want to sell their homes adjust their asking price to stimulate interest. During the third quarter, unit home sales were positive in July, fell 9 per cent year-over-year in August and we are expecting September to show a decline as well,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive, Royal LePage. “We had predicted this cyclical change early in the year, a natural market reaction after a period of strong expansion. Changes to mortgage regulations, which took effect on July 9th, accelerated the correction.”

In July, the Minister of Finance announced that the maximum amortization period for insured mortgages would be reduced to 25 years from 30 years. This was the fourth intervention in the mortgage market in just four years and the most impactful. Potential first-time buyers, which in a typical market represent one third to one half of all purchase transactions, felt the changes immediately.

“While hard-hit in the short-term, first-time buyers will adjust to tougher mortgage qualifications. The dream of homeownership is very much alive among young Canadians. They may remain renters for sometime as they save; some will opt for less desirable neighbourhoods and some will purchase smaller homes,” added Soper. “In the meanwhile, we will feel their absence in national sales statistics.”

Canadian consumers were bombarded with troublesome economic news from around the globe during the period, particularly in the early weeks of the third quarter. While this has been a drag on the nation’s housing market and contributed to a slowing in home sale transactions, consumer confidence appeared to rebound in September, which should support activity in the important fall market.

“Policy makers in Canada and the United States have confirmed that the current period of very low interest rates will continue, likely through 2013. This is very supportive of housing market activity and any downward pressure on home prices should be minimal,” said Soper. “And for the first time in six years, sustained positive news from the American housing market should leave Canadian’s more confident about our continued economic prosperity.”

National average house price changes do not always reflect the markets of individual cities, which are closely tied to their local economies. Case in point, some $29 billion in energy related investments are now underway in Alberta and Calgary is expected to lead the nation in economic growth through 2013. The city posted healthy price appreciation for both detached bungalows and two-storey homes, as predicted in previous Royal LePage House Price Surveys and Market Survey Forecasts.

“When the underlying economy of a city is sound and growing, house price appreciation is sustained. Calgary has enjoyed solid growth in home values this year. I have also been very pleased with the growth in commercial brokerage transactions seen in our Royal LePage Commercial business in the region,” said Soper.

Regional Market Summaries

Halifax’s strong employment levels led to average price increases across all three housing types surveyed. Detached bungalows continued to witness the largest year-over-year gains, increasing 8.9 per cent to $293,000. Detached bungalows in St. John’s witnessed the largest average price gains across Canada, rising 9.9 per cent, as mega-projects continue to boost migration.

Despite a decline in market activity, Montreal’s house prices posted healthy increases in the second quarter of 2012. Standard two-storey homes witnessed the largest average price increase, rising 5.5 per cent to $387,786.

Healthy employment in Ottawa’s technology sector balanced job loss in the government sector as the region posted healthy average price increases across all three housing types surveyed, with house price gains ranging from 4.9 to 6.1 per cent.

Average house price gains in Toronto ranged from 2.7 to 5.9 per cent for housing types surveyed. Although demand decreased modestly due to mortgage rule changes, the pipeline of potential buyers continued to put upward pressure on detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes. Multiple offers are still very common in the region.

Winnipeg’s real estate market produced average price gains ranging from 6.5 to 8.3 per cent as first-time buyers remained fairly active, despite recent changes to mortgage rules.

Low inventory coupled with demand created by low interest rates continued to put upward pressure on average year-over-year price gains in Regina. Standard-two storey homes posted the largest increase of 9.8 per cent rising to an average price of $359,500.

Calgary’s healthy market activity and increased consumer confidence has led to house price gains in the third quarter for detached bungalows and standard two-storey homes, increasing 6.5 per cent and 4.1 per cent respectively. Detached bungalows in Edmonton posted strong price gains rising an average of 7.5 per cent in the third quarter, while two-storey homes increased a modest 1.5 per cent and standard condominiums declined 0.6 per cent.

In Vancouver, average house prices posted modest decreases as market activity slowed down during the third quarter. Standard condominiums posted the largest decrease, slipping 3.0 per cent year-over-year to $498,000.