The Riz Team Blog

The introduction of new tariffs between the USA and Canada could have several implications for the Canadian housing market, particularly in Ontario, which is one of the most populous and economically significant provinces in Canada. Here are some thoughts on how these tariffs, along with other economic factors like interest rates and stock market performance, might impact the housing market:

1. Impact of Tariffs on the Housing Market

• Construction Costs: Tariffs on imported construction materials (e.g., steel, aluminum, lumber) could increase the cost of building new homes. This would likely be passed on to consumers in the form of higher home prices, particularly in markets like Ontario where demand for housing remains strong.
• Consumer Confidence: If tariffs lead to broader economic uncertainty or a slowdown in trade-dependent industries, consumer confidence could weaken. This might reduce the willingness of potential buyers to enter the housing market, particularly for higher-priced homes.
• Regional Effects: Ontario, being a major manufacturing hub, could feel the impact of tariffs more acutely than other provinces. If businesses face higher costs or reduced access to U.S. markets, job losses or reduced wage growth could dampen housing demand in certain areas.

2. Proposed Interest Rates

• Bank of Canada (BoC) Response: The BoC typically considers both domestic and global economic conditions when setting interest rates. If tariffs lead to slower economic growth or inflationary pressures (due to higher import costs), the BoC may adjust its monetary policy accordingly.
  • Scenario 1: If tariffs cause inflation to rise, the BoC might increase interest rates to curb inflationary pressures. Higher interest rates would make mortgages more expensive, potentially cooling the housing market.
  • Scenario 2: If tariffs lead to economic slowdown or uncertainty, the BoC might hold off on raising rates or even cut them to stimulate the economy. This could support housing demand by keeping borrowing costs low.
• Current Trends: As of late 2023, the BoC has been cautious about raising rates too quickly as we went up with 12 interest rate hikes and we have a downward trend now into 2025 with the last 5 interest rate reductions, given concerns about household debt levels and housing affordability. Tariffs could add another layer of complexity to their decision-making process.

3. Stock Market Downturn and S&P 500 Decline

• Wealth Effect: A decline in the stock market, particularly in the S&P 500, could reduce the wealth of Canadian investors who hold U.S. equities. This might lead to decreased consumer confidence and spending, including in the housing market.
• Investor Behavior: A downturn in the stock market could make real estate a more attractive investment option for some investors, potentially increasing demand for housing. However, this effect might be offset by broader economic uncertainty.
• Mortgage Rates: While the stock market and housing market are not directly linked, a significant decline in the S&P 500 could signal broader economic concerns. This might lead to lower bond yields, which could, in turn, result in lower fixed mortgage rates. However, variable rates would still be influenced by the BoC’s policy decisions.

4. Overall Housing Market Outlook in Canada

• Short-Term: In the short term, the combination of tariffs, potential interest rate changes, and stock market volatility could create uncertainty in the housing market. This might lead to slower price growth or even price declines in some regions, particularly if buyer confidence wanes.
• Long-Term: Over the longer term, the impact of tariffs on the housing market will depend on how they affect the broader economy. If tariffs lead to sustained economic weakness, the housing market could face headwinds. However, if the economy adjusts and growth resumes, the housing market could stabilize or even rebound.
• Regional Variations: Ontario, particularly the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), may experience different effects compared to other regions. The GTA’s housing market is influenced by factors like immigration, foreign investment, and local economic conditions, which could mitigate or amplify the impact of tariffs and other economic factors.

Conclusion

The new USA/Canada tariffs, combined with potential changes in interest rates and stock market performance, create a complex environment for the Canadian housing market. In Ontario, the impact could be significant, particularly if tariffs lead to higher construction costs or economic uncertainty. However, the housing market’s resilience will depend on a range of factors, including the BoC’s monetary policy, consumer confidence, and broader economic conditions. While there may be short-term challenges, the long-term outlook will depend on how these factors evolve and interact over time.

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